Wednesday, February 22, 2006

2006 Preview: Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves begin the season with three pitchers on their 40 man roster who have hit Craig Biggio with a pitch. John Smoltz, John Thomson, and Oscar Villareal have each hit Biggio once.
The Braves play the Astros 7 times this season, but they are unlikely to hit Craig Biggio with a pitch more than once, if at all. The Braves are last among National League teams in plunking Biggio with only 7 all time. If they do hit him with a pitch, look for it to be thrown by either Tim Hudson (56 career hit batters, 9 in '05), or any of the crop of 1st or 2nd year pitchers who make the team.

Based on Biggio's career HBPs per plate appearance against the Braves (and the Binomial Distribution), if he gets 35 plate appearances against the Braves this year there is a 28.2% chance of Biggio getting plunked by Atlanta. The Braves probability of breaking the single season team record for hitting Craig Biggio with pitches is 0.0000035%. The 2001 Cardinals hold that record with 6.

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