Thursday, March 30, 2006

2006 Preview: Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds hit 80 batters in 2005, second only to the Colorado Rockies in National League hit batsmen. Perhaps they weren't satisfied with second place though, because this spring they acquired Bronson Arroyo, who hit 14 batters last season for the Red Sox. Arroyo also hit Craig Biggio with a pitch in 2001. Arroyo will easily cover the loss of the Reds 2005 plunk leader, Luke Hudson who hit 11. The Reds also imported starter Dave Williams, who hit 8 batters in 2005, and hit Craig Biggio in 2002.
Returning to the Reds starting rotation are Aaron Harang (8 plunks in '05), Brandon Clausson (7 in '05), and Eric Milton (7 in '05), none of whom have plunked Craig Biggio.
The Reds bullpen has a trio of pitchers who have hit Biggio with a pitch before with Chris Hammond, Todd Coffey and Paul Wilson.

If the Reds hit Craig Biggio with a pitch in 2006, it will be the 15th consecutive season they'll have done so. They haven't gone a season without plunking Biggio since 1991. But, they've only hit him 20 times in total, and never more than twice in a season.

Based on Biggio's career plunks per plate appearance against the Reds, which has nothing to do with the consecutive years streak, the probability of the Reds plunking Biggio in 2006 is 76.3%. The probability of 2 or more plunks from the reds is 41.8% and the probability of a 7 plunk year, breaking the Cardinals single season record for plunking Biggio, is 0.057%.


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