Friday, February 24, 2006

2006 Preview: Florida Marlins

The Marlins set an offseason record by losing 90 starting pitchers through trades and free agency. That might not be true, but there aren't many left. But, they still have Dontrelle Willis and Brian Moehler so they remain a prime threat to hit Craig Biggio with a pitch at least once in 2006. Both Willis and Moehler plunked Biggio last year, and they look like they'll be anchoring a rotation filled with very inexperienced pitchers.

No one quite knows who else will be in the starting rotation for the Marlins in 2006, but one thing to keep in mind is that the single team record for the most different pitchers to start a game in a season is 24 by the 1915 Philadelphia Athletics. Things might shape up differently after spring training, but the key to making the back end of the Florida rotation looks like it's going to be who has options.

This all adds up to an excellent chance for the Marlins to equal last years total of 2 HBPs against Craig Biggio, despite only playing the Astros 7 times. Based on Biggio's career HBPs per plate appearance against the Marlins (and the Binomial Distribution), if he gets 35 plate appearances against Florida this year there is a 71.6% chance of Biggio getting plunked at least once, and a 35.2% chance that he'll get hit by two or more pitches. The Marlins probability of breaking the single season record for hitting Craig Biggio with pitches comes out to 0.019%.

(Warning: probabilities listed in 2006 Preview posts are for entertainment purposes only and should not be counted on for gambling purposes. Past performance does not necessarily predict future results, especially when you throw in a handful of guesses and vague assumptions.)



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