Thursday, August 30, 2007

unforeseen consequences

The obvious point this site has made over and over is that when Craig Biggio gets hit by pitches, he helps the Astros win. Less obvious consequences of his plunks which have been illustrated here are increased plunk rates in other games around the league, decreases in California earthquakes, changes in the stock market, and and a high frequency of New York Knicks losses in playoff games. But it turns out, when Craig Biggio gets hit by a pitch, he might somehow be helping the Atlanta Braves win too.

The Braves have hit Craig Biggio with pitches 8 times, and are 4-4 against the Astros when they plunk Biggio, but on the 265 days on which Craig Biggio has been hit by a pitch, they Braves have 157 wins and 99 losses, for a .613 win pct. If you take out the times they plunked Biggio themselves, the Braves are .617 when someone else plunks Biggio. No team has a higher winning percentage on days on which Craig Biggio has been hit by a pitch, but only 1 other team has won more frequently than the Astros on those days - the Yankees with a .563 win pct.

The Braves and Yankees have been consistently very good during the span of Craig Biggio's career, but from 1998 through yesterday the Yankees had a .562 win pct. overall, and a .563 win pct when Biggio gets hit by a pitch. The Braves have a .561 win pct since the 1988 season, but it jumps up to .613 when Biggio gets plunked. The only team with a greater increase in win percentage on days when Biggio gets hit by pitches is the Orioles - they've had a losing record in total since 1988, at .475, but on day when Biggio gets plunked they win a .520 clip - even though, like Atlanta, they are only .500 on days when they plunk Biggio themselves.

On the reverse side, the biggest downward change in winning percent on days when Biggio gets plunked is experienced by the Reds. They've won 49.6% of their games since 1988, but on days when Biggio gets plunked they are 108-148 for a .422 winning pct. However, they're slightly better when they plunk him themselves, at .428.

This season, the Mets are an impressive 4-0 on days when Craig Biggio has been plunked, including July 7th when Biggio was hit by the Mets. The Phillies are 0-4 on days when Biggio has been plunked this season, and in fact the Mets are 3-0 against the Phillies on days when Biggio has been hit by a pitch this year. So, Craig Biggio could hold the key to the NL East pennant race this year, or even today.

Here is a table showing each team's win/loss record on days when Craig Biggio has been hit by a pitch, and their total win/loss record from 1988 to August 29, 2007.

On Biggio plunk days
Overall, 1988 to 8/29/07

TeamsRecordWin PctRecordWin Pctdiffpct diff
Red Sox135-1170.5361700-14450.541-0.005-0.92%
White Sox126-1150.5231631-15110.5190.0040.77%
Blue Jays130-1240.5121606-15410.510.0020.39%

Below is a table showing each team's win/loss record in games in which they plunked Biggio themselves:
White Sox2-01.000

Biggio has been plunked twice on days when the Astros were playing double-headers, but the Astros are 1-3 on those days (he's never been hit in both games of a double-header). But, that means that while the Brewers are 6-9 in games in which they plunk Biggio, they are 7-9 on days when they plunk Biggio, and the Pirates are 11-12 on the dates they've hit Biggio with a pitch.


At 8/31/2007 02:26:00 AM, Anonymous cletus j. "bubba" huckabee jr. said...

Now if you ask me, and plenty folk do now and again, the log jam in the ascending plunk count might could be on account of the pending evil milestone our man “Target” is fixin’ to achieve. Contrary to what folk down at the Sanctified Temperance and Perpetual Glosolalia Church of Greater Chesterfield County believe, I ain’t necessarily a religious man. Now, granted, I show up on a regular basis and sit in the Huckabee family pew. But that is on account of me carrying on a tradition that goes back seven generations. A Huckabee male is always present when them church doors open, and as the head Huckabee of Chesterfield County, I feel a moral duty to keep the tradition going. In all my many hours of being perched on that uncomfortable pew, I learned to use my head to concentrate on more enjoyable topics than brimstone, hellfire, pending doom, and moral judgment. Don’t get me wrong, I ain’t again the church… I just like to allow my mind to drift during sermons. Well, the other day my mind drifted to the fact that Target is fixin’ to achieve his 666th double. At the Sanctified Temperance and Perpetual Glosolalia Church of Greater Chesterfield County the number 666 is seen is incredibly and indelibly evil. In fact the minions of Hades can be conjured up through the utilization of that particular number. At least, that’s what Brother Cyril done said. If’in that happens to be the case, then I am wondering if the unexpected diminution of the plunks might be the work of the evil one himself. Right today Target is sitting on 665 doubles and shares the record with George “hemorrhoids and pine tar” Brett which I find kind of creepy in and of itself. In fact, I reckon Brett might be one of the minions. Anywho, if’in Target can reach and pass 666 doubles, then maybe that will release the minions of Hades to go on back down to the depths of earth (or at least over to the American League) and leave Target alone. I know you might commence to think I’m reaching for straws, but with so few games remaining in his career, and so few plunks required to top that no-count, snivln’ weasel Hughie Jennings (who very well might be in league with the devil too) I’m desperate to figure out what went wrong and what we can do to right it.

At 8/31/2007 08:36:00 AM, Blogger pbr said...

Well Cletus, just in case there's any chance it will help, meghan and I are going to personally visit Minute Maid Park in two weeks - for the games September 14th and 15th - and I at least will be wearing an HBP:BGO t-shirt to see if your theories are correct that they can steer pitches in the direction of "Target". Meghan may have too much fashion sense to wear one, but if anyone else in the area wants to participate in the expiriment, I'd invite them to come to those games against the Pirates and see if we can help move pitches toward Craig Biggio and move Craig Biggio toward the greatest record in sports.

At 8/31/2007 09:59:00 AM, Blogger Brad said...

I know you have probably posted about this subject, but any idea if the president of the US has anything to do with bgo hbp?
....just another reason for Bush's approval ratings to drop some more.

At 8/31/2007 10:39:00 AM, Blogger pbr said...

He's got 116 during the current administration at this point. Check here or here for more stuff about presidents.

I'd be interested to know if he's hit more or less frequently in home games when the senior Bushs are in attendance, but I'm not sure whether anyone has a record of that. Maybe I should file a freedom of information act petition or something.

At 8/31/2007 11:20:00 AM, Blogger Brad said...

I dont know about overall, but I just know Ive gone to almost every home game since june and no bush or BGO HBP.


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