2007 Preview: Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies have hit Craig Biggio with more pitches than any other team, but they did not hit him in 2006, breaking a 5 season streak of Biggio-plunking. The Rockies have hit Biggio with at least one pitch in every season they've existed, other than 2006, 1999 and 1993. In all, they've hit Biggio 32 times in 29 games, including 5 consecutive plunks in 2005 that pushed Biggio past Don Baylor on the all time list (giving Biggio the so-called "modern record"). The Rockies would be the perfect choice to throw the historic Plunk 288, and they'll have 7 excellent opportunities to do it with three games at Coors Field, June 5th to 7th, and 4 games at Minute Maid, June 28th to July 1st.

Jeff Francis led the 2006 Rockies in hitting batters, but none of the 13 batters he hit last year or the 9 batters he hit before that were named Craig Biggio. Byung-Hyun Kim was their next most accomplished plunker in 2006, and is the team's career leader. He hit 8 batters last year, and 64 in his career, including Biggio's 268th. Also on the staff are Josh Fogg and Aaron Cook, who have each hit Biggio once. They could have two more pitchers with a past record of plunking Biggio, if they offer jobs to Dave Veres and Danny Graves. both are listed as Non-Roster invitees in Rockies training camp, but Veres is 40 and having arm trouble. Graves may still win a spot in the Rockies bullpen, but the Denver media doesn't appear to think that's very likely.

On the 3000 hits front, the Rockies have given up 164 of Biggio's 2,930 hits so far, and that late June series in Houston may be a good time for hit #3000 to make it's appearance. Biggio's 70th hit of the 2002 season came on July 1st, so why not in 2007 as well? Since they joined the league, the Rockies have given up hits to Craig Biggio at a .352 pace - his highest career batting average against any National League team.

In 2006, the Rockies hit Willy Aybar (twice), Josh Barfield (twice), Jose Bautista (twice), Barry Bonds (twice), Eric Bruntlett, Miguel Cabrera (twice), Sean Casey, Tony Clark, Craig Counsell (twice), J.D. Drew, Ray Durham, Edwin Encarnacion (twice), Andre Ethier, Steve Finley, Nomar Garciaparra, Brian Giles, Marcus Giles, Adrian Gonzalez, Luis Gonzalez (twice), Shawn Green, Ken Griffey, Jose Guillen, Joel Guzman, Shea Hillenbrand, Geoff Jenkins (three times), Kenji Johjima, Nick Johnson (three times),Andruw Jones, Jeff Kent (twice), Jason LaRue (three times), Mike Lieberthal, Jose Lopez, Ramon Martinez, Lastings Milledge, Damian Miller, Mike Napoli, Laynce Nix, Aramis Ramirez, Jason Repko, John Rodriguez, Aaron Rowand (twice), Olmedo Saenz, Brian Schneider, Mark Sweeney, Chad Tracy (twice), Omar Vizquel (twice), Randy Winn and Chris Woodward. They hit 34 batters in odd numbered innings and 32 in even numbered innings, but never hit anyone in extra innings. They hit 41 batters on the road, but only 25 at home. They hit one batter with the bases loaded, and 3 batters on the dates of full moons. June 30th, 2007, when the Rockies will be at Houston is going to be the night of a full moon.

the teenwolf effect

Long time readers of this site will recall that Craig Biggio is hit by a pitch more frequently on nights, like tonight, when the moon is full. He hasn't been hit during a full moon since June 22 of last season (when Jason Jennings hit him twice), but he still gets hit about 31% more often per game and 37% more often per plate appearance on the date of a full moon than he does during the rest of the lunar cycle. He records an HBP once every 7.33 games and once every 31.1 plate appearances when the moon is full, and once per 9.62 games and once per 42.6 plate appearances when it is not.
Well, it turns out this is not a local phenomenon. League wide, batters are hit 5.9% more often per plate appearance when the moon is full. About 1 batter per 120.3 is hit during full moons while non-full moon plunks occur about once every 127.4 plate appearances.
However, Biggio's increased batting average is not mirrored in league wide stats. Biggio bats .298 when the moon is full and .284 the rest of the time. He also increases his home run output from 1 per 43 plate appearance to 1 per 37 plate appearances. The major leagues as a whole, from 1988-2005, have the nearly the same batting average whether the moon is full or not - .2637 on non-full moons to .2635 on full moons. There is a slight increase in home run production during full moons, from 1.97 per game to 2.00 per game.

I have no explanation for this increase in hit batters during the full moon, but it is clearly an important area which should receive further study, and it would be the perfect opportunity for that collaboration between NASA and Major League Baseball that both groups have been waiting for. It's only fitting that the Astros should be at the forefront of such an effort.

No, I'm not making this up.

Seriously. I looked it up. Tonight, May 23rd, is a full moon. Craig Biggio has been hit by a pitch 10 times on the night of a full moon, in 79 games. His plunks per game for full moon nights is 0.127 while his overall plunks per game is .106. Or, he gets hit once every 9.391 games overall, while under a full moon he gets hit once every 7.9 games. He also bats .291 when there's a full moon, slightly better than his .286 lifetime average. And yes, all of the 10 full moon plunks were night games. 2 of the 10 were at Wrigley but none were in the month of May.