Wednesday, March 01, 2006

2006 Preview: New York Mets

The Mets have 6 pitchers in camp who have hit Craig Biggio once each, but 2 (Jeremi Gonzalez and Pedro Feliciano) are non-roster invitees. Braeden Looper and Kaz Ishii hit Biggio for the Mets last year, but both have moved on leaving Aaron Heilman as the only current Met to hit Biggio with a pitch for the Mets. The other 3, Pedro Martinez, Jorge Julio (last year), and Chad Bradford all plunked Craig Biggio for other teams. The Mets hit Craig Biggio twice last year but to match that in 2006 it will depend on how the rotations match up. If the Astros 6 games against New York include more starts by Victor Zambrano (15 plunks in '05) and less against Tom Glavine, 2 plunks will be more likely. But if Pedro Martinez continues his statistical mellowing (or isn't healthy), and Glavine gets 2 starts, 1 plunk or less is more likely.

Based on Biggio's past plunks per plate appearance against the Mets, and an assumption of 30 plate appearances, his probability of getting plunked by them again this year is 57.1%. 2 or more plunks by the Mets are 20.2% likely, and the probability of a record breaking* 7 plunk season for Biggio against the Mets is 0.0015%.

*That would be Biggio's personal record, not the all time single season record for getting hit by one team. I haven't tracked that one down just yet.

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