Monday, June 04, 2007

Effects of plunkless streaks on runs scored

Craig Biggio has score 1,808 runs in 2,760 career games so far in his career. That works out to about 0.66 runs per game, or about a run every 1.53 games, or about 106 runs per 162 games (a season's worth). In the 263 games in which he's been hit by a pitch, he's scored 242 runs - about 0.92 per game, or one per 1.09 games with a plunk or 149 per 162 games (a full season of games in which he was hit by a pitch, which would obviously be a lot of records). But, during spans of games while he was on a plunkless streak of 30 games or longer, he's managed to score only 0.56 runs per game - or one run every 1.77 games, or 91 runs per 162 games (a full season of games during 30+ game plunkless streaks - not necessarily 162 consecutive plunkless games, which he's never done). When he's not on a 30+ game plunkless streak, Craig Biggio scores 24.1% more runs per game. This year's streak, however, has not been quite so bad. He's still managed to score 26 runs in the last 39 games he's played since last being plunked, which is slightly better than his career runs per game average (about 1.8% better). That's is somewhat amazing given his .285 OBP for the season.

Since the beginning of the 1988 season, the Astros have scored about 4.61 runs per game whether Craig Biggio played in the game or not. But, in games played during Biggio's plunkless streaks of 30 or more games, the Astros have scored only 4.35 runs on average. During the rest of their games, when Biggio wasn't in a plunk slump, they scored 4.74 runs or about 9.1% more runs per game.

From 1988 through yesterday, the Astros have won 540 games during Biggio's plunk slumps and lost 523 for a 0.508 win percentage, while the rest of the time they've accumulated a 1063-943 record for a .530 win pct. They win about 4% more often when he isn't on an extended plunkless streak but this seasons

Thanks to commenter "The silence is killing me" for bringing up this topic.


At 6/05/2007 09:40:00 AM, Blogger Jim Kiser said...

I was just wondering if you know if Biggio reads this blog? Maybe someone should point out the numbers to hi so he will lean in more often and further.

At 6/05/2007 01:45:00 PM, Blogger pbr said...

I have it on good authority, from someone who asked him, that Biggio does not read this site. He said he tried to pull it up once, but couldn't find it (probably because I wasn't smart enough to register before I realized anyone was reading this thing - now some hat company owns it).


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