Tuesday, March 14, 2006

2006 Preview: LA Dodgers

Among all the pitchers in Dodgers training camp this spring, there is only one, Brian Meadows, who has hit Craig Biggio with a pitch. Meadows is a non-roster invitee, and hit Biggio back in 1998 while he was pitching for the Marlins.
Last year Jeff Weaver took care of most of the Dodgers plunking duties, hitting 18, but he departed over the winter for the closest American League team he could find. DJ Houlton is left as the Dodgers' biggest 2005 plunker with only 8, so it may look like they should continue their two year streak of not plunking Biggio. But, 139 of Biggio's 273 plunks to date have been thrown by pitchers who hit a total of 5 batters or less in that same season. Only 49 were thrown by pitchers who were in double digits in hit batters for that season. Pitchers who hit 3 batters in a season have hit Biggio with one of them most often (33 times), including Brian Meadows in 1998. Expected starters Derek Lowe, Brett Tomko, Brad Penny and Odalis Perez only had 15 hit batters between them last year.
Based on Biggio's past history against the Dodgers, he is 62.5% likely NOT to get hit by them in the 6 games they'll play this year. There is only a 7.9% chance that the Dodgers will hit him multiple times, and it is 0.000033% probable that the Dodgers will break the single season Biggio plunking record by hitting him 7 times.

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